A third method, statistical modeling, uses observed regional yields and historical weather records to fit regression functions to predict crop responses ( 8, 9). Process-based crop models characterize crop growth and development in daily time steps and can be used to simulate the temperature response of yield either in areas around the globe defined by grids or at selected field sites or points ( 1, 7). Several methods have been developed to assess the impact of temperature increase on crop yields ( 6). Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops and suggest crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure food security for an increasing world population.

Results are highly heterogeneous across crops and geographical areas, with some positive impact estimates. Without CO 2 fertilization, effective adaptation, and genetic improvement, each degree-Celsius increase in global mean temperature would, on average, reduce global yields of wheat by 6.0%, rice by 3.2%, maize by 7.4%, and soybean by 3.1%. Results from the different methods consistently showed negative temperature impacts on crop yield at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales.

Here, we investigated the impacts of temperature on yields of the four crops by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods: global grid-based and local point-based models, statistical regressions, and field-warming experiments. Assessing the impact of global temperature increase on production of these crops is therefore critical to maintaining global food supply, but different studies have yielded different results. Wheat, rice, maize, and soybean provide two-thirds of human caloric intake.

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